Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.003038 0.003341 0.003664 0.004035 0.004449 0.004898 0.005422
2026-02-08 0.002496 0.002916 0.003394 0.003983 0.004692 0.005520 0.006568
2026-02-15 0.002157 0.002622 0.003179 0.003896 0.004805 0.005925 0.007424
2026-02-22 0.001959 0.002460 0.003081 0.003915 0.005017 0.006437 0.008431
2026-03-01 0.001840 0.002377 0.003065 0.004021 0.005332 0.007092 0.009673
2026-03-08 0.001679 0.002220 0.002932 0.003953 0.005398 0.007404 0.010460
2026-03-15 0.001540 0.002079 0.002806 0.003876 0.005435 0.007669 0.011192
2026-03-22 0.001437 0.001978 0.002725 0.003851 0.005538 0.008027 0.012087
2026-03-29 0.001368 0.001919 0.002695 0.003893 0.005737 0.008540 0.013263
2026-04-05 0.001277 0.001821 0.002602 0.003833 0.005772 0.008798 0.014049
2026-04-12 0.001202 0.001740 0.002527 0.003793 0.005832 0.009094 0.014921
2026-04-19 0.001131 0.001661 0.002449 0.003740 0.005865 0.009345 0.015734
2026-04-26 0.001078 0.001608 0.002411 0.003753 0.006016 0.009821 0.017023
2026-05-03 0.001015 0.001535 0.002338 0.003706 0.006064 0.010127 0.018048
2026-05-10 0.000950 0.001456 0.002250 0.003626 0.006046 0.010316 0.018867
2026-05-17 0.000911 0.001417 0.002221 0.003643 0.006199 0.010820 0.020351
2026-05-24 0.000892 0.001406 0.002239 0.003740 0.006502 0.011626 0.022531
2026-05-31 0.000843 0.001345 0.002169 0.003677 0.006504 0.011862 0.023559
2026-06-07 0.000797 0.001285 0.002097 0.003607 0.006485 0.012052 0.024511
2026-06-14 0.000763 0.001243 0.002054 0.003584 0.006554 0.012423 0.025898
2026-06-21 0.000741 0.001222 0.002044 0.003623 0.006747 0.013059 0.027961
2026-06-28 0.000705 0.001175 0.001987 0.003567 0.006746 0.013292 0.029115
2026-07-05 0.000675 0.001135 0.001941 0.003530 0.006779 0.013600 0.030485